Efectos económicos de la complementariedad comercial en la negociación de un tratado de libre comercio entre México y Corea del Sur
Contenido principal del artículo
Resumen
México y Corea del Sur han avanzado en sus vínculos comerciales desde que iniciaron relaciones diplomáticas en 1962. Actualmente, los gobiernos de ambas economías se encuentran discutiendo la posibilidad de negociar un acuerdo de libre comercio. El objetivo de esta investigación es evaluar los efectos potenciales de dicho acuerdo. Para ello, se utilizan índices de intensidad comercial, ventajas comparativas reveladas, complementariedad y similitud comercial. Los resultados obtenidos muestran que los dos países han visto intensificar sus relaciones comerciales, lo que ha convertido a México en el principal socio comercial de Corea del Sur en América Latina, y ha dado lugar a una estructura comercial de complementariedad con ventajas para México en el comercio de combustibles minerales, lubricantes, maquinaria y equipo de transporte. También se obtuvo evidencia de la existencia de una asimetría en sus tarifas arancelarias que podría generar ventajas comerciales, sobre todo para México en el sector primario, en caso de lograr avanzar a la firma de un tratado de libre comercio.
Descargas
Detalles del artículo
Esta obra está bajo una https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/deed.es.
Creado a partir de la obra en http://www.eltrimestreeconomico.com.mx/index.php/te/index
Nota: la licencia de creative commons sólo aplica para la sección Artículos, para el contenido de las otras secciones, véase cada texto.
Métricas PlumX
Citas
Abbas, S., y Waheed, A. (2019). Pakistan’s global trade potential: A gravity model approach. Global Business Review, 20(6), 1361-1371. Recuperado de: https://doi.org/10.1177/0972150919848936
Anderson, J. E., y Yotov, Y. V. (2016). Terms of trade and global efficiency effects of free trade agreements, 1990-2002. Journal of International Economics, 99, 279-298. Recuperado de: https://doi.org/10.1016/j. jinteco.2015.10.006
Andreosso-O’Callaghan, B. (2009). Economic structural complementarity: How viable is the Korea-EU FTA? Journal of Economic Studies, 36(2), 147-167. Recuperado de: https://doi.org/10.1108/01443580910955042
Antweiler, W., Copeland, B. R., y Taylor, M. S. (2001). Is free trade good for the environment? American Economic Review, 91(4), 877-908. Recuperado de: https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.91.4.877
Baier, S. L., y Bergstrand, J. H. (2007). Do free trade agreements actually increase members’ international trade? Journal of International Economics, 71(1), 72-95. Recuperado de: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2006.02.005
Baier, S. L., Yotov, Y. V., y Zylkin, T. (2019). On the widely differing effects of free trade agreements: Lessons from twenty years of trade integration. Journal of International Economics, 116, 206-226. Recuperado de: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2018.11.002
Balassa, B. (1964). Teoría de la integración económica. México: UTEHA.
Balassa, B. (1965). Trade liberalisation and “revealed” comparative advantage. The Manchester School, 33(2), 99-123. Recuperado de: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9957.1965.tb00050.x
Bhagwati, J. (1999). Regionalism and multilateralism: An overview. En J. Bhagwati y A. Panagariya (eds.), Trading Blocs: Alternative Approaches to Analyzing Preferential Trade Agreements (pp. 3-32). Cambridge, Mass.: The MIT Press.
Birdsall, N., y Wheeler, D. (1993). Trade policy and industrial pollution in Latin America: Where are the pollution havens? Journal of Environment & Development, 2(1), 137-149. Recuperado de: https://doi.org/10.1177/107049659300200107
Blake, P., y Wadhwa, D. (2022). 2020 Year in Review: The impact of covid-19 in 12 charts. World Bank Blogs. Recuperado de: https://blogs.worldbank.org/voices/2020-year-review-impact-covid-19-12-charts
Brown, A. J. (1949). Applied Economics: Aspects of World Economy in War and Peace. Londres: George Allen and Unwin.
Cabezas, M. (2003). Tratado de Libre Comercio entre Chile y Estados Unidos: Revisión de estudios que cuantifican su impacto (documento de trabajo, 239). Santiago de Chile: Banco Central de Chile.
Caporale, G. M., Rault, C., Sova, R., y Sova, A. (2009). On the bilateral trade effects of free trade agreements between the EU-15 and the CEEC-4 countries. Review of World Economics, 145, 189-206. Recuperado de: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10290-009-0011-8
Chandran, S. (2010). Trade Complementarity and Similarity between India and Asean Countries in the Context of the RTA (mpra Paper núm. 29279). Recuperado de: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/29279/
Cheong, D. (2010). Methods for Ex Ante Economic Evaluation of Free Trade Agreements (ADB Working Paper Series on Regional Economic Integration, 52). Asian Development Bank.
Cooper, W. H. (2014). Free Trade Agreements: Impact on US Trade and Implications for US Trade Policy. Washington, D. C.: Congressional Research Service. Recuperado de: https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL31356.pdf
Dadush, U., y Myachenkova, Y. (2018). Assessing the European Union’s North Africa Trade Agreements (Policy Contribution Issue, 22). Bruegel.
Doan, T. N., y Xing, Y. (2018). Trade efficiency, free trade agreements and rules of origin. Journal of Asian Economics, 55, 33-41. Recuperado de: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asieco.2017.12.007
Dogan, E., y Turkekul, B. (2016). CO2 emissions, real output, energy consumption, trade, urbanization and financial development: Testing the EKC hypothesis for the USA. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 23, 1203-1213. Recuperado de: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-015-5323-8
Drysdale, P. (1967). Australian-Japanese Trade (tesis doctoral). Australian National University, Australia.
ECI (2019). Economic Complexity Index 2019. Recuperado de: https://oec.world/en
Egger, P. H., Larch, M., y Yotov, Y. V. (2022). Gravity estimations with interval data: Revisiting the impact of free trade agreements. Economica, 89(353), 44-61. Recuperado de: https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12394
Farhani, S., y Ozturk, I. (2015). Relación causal entre emisiones de CO2, pib real, consumo de energía, desarrollo financiero, apertura comercial y urbanización en Túnez. Reinar. Ciencia Contaminar Res., 22, 15663-15676.
Finger J. M., y Kreinin, M. E. (1979). A measure of export similarity and its possible uses. The Economic Journal, 89(356), 905-912. Recuperado de: https://doi.org/10.2307/2231506
FMI (2022). Perspectivas de la economía mundial: La guerra retrasa la recuperación mundial. Washington, D. C.: FMI.
Frankel, J. A. (2009). Environmental Effects of International Trade. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard Kennedy School. Recuperado de: http://nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:4481652
Frankel, J. A., y Rose, A. K. (2005). ¿El comercio es bueno o malo para el medio ambiente? Clasificando la causalidad. Revista de Economía y Estadística, 87, 85-91.
Gehrels, F. (1956). Customs union from a single-country viewpoint get access arrow. The Review of Economic Studies, 24(1), 61-64. Recuperado de: https://www.doi.org/10.2307/2296237
Giordano, P., Ortiz de Mendívil, C., y Vodusek, Z. (2019). Un impulso a la cooperación: Alternativas de políticas para América Latina y Corea. Washington, D. C.: BID. Recuperado de: http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0001925
Gozgor, G. (2017). Does trade matter for carbon emissions in OECD countries? Evidence from a new trade openness measure. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 24, 27813-27821. Recuperado de: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-017-0361-z
Grossman, G. M., y Krueger, A. B. (1995). Economic growth and the environment. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110(2), 353-377. Recuperado de: https://doi.org/10.2307/2118443
Hasson, A., y Masih, M. (2017). Consumo de energía, apertura comercial, crecimiento económico, emisiones de dióxido de carbono y consumo de electricidad: evidencia de Sudáfrica basada en ARDL (MPRA paper, 79424). Recuperado de: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/79424/
Ibrahim, M. H., y Law, S. H. (2016). Institutional quality and CO2 emission–Trade relations: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa. South African Journal of Economics, 84(2), 323-340. Recuperado de: https://doi.org/10.1111/saje.12095
Irshad, M. S., Xin, Q., Hui, Z., y Arshad, H. (2018). An empirical analysis of Pakistan’s bilateral trade and trade potential with China: A gravity model approach. Cogent Economics & Finance, 6(1). Recuperado de: https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2018.1504409
Jagdambe, S., y Kannan, E. (2020). Effects of ASEAN-India Free Trade Agreement on agricultural trade: The gravity model approach. World Development Perspectives, 19, 100212. Recuperado de: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wdp.2020.100212
Jales, H. (2018). Estimating the effects of minimum wage in Brazil: A density discontinuity design approach. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 33(1), 29-51. Recuperado de: https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.2586
Jaunky, V. C. (2011). The CO2 emissions-income nexus: Evidence from rich
countries. Energy Policy, 39(3), 1228-1240. Recuperado de: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2010.11.050
Jebli, M. B., Youssef, S. B., y Ozturk, I. (2016). Testing environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis: The role of renewable and non-renewable energy consumption and trade in OECD countries. Ecological Indicators, 60, 824-831. Recuperado de: https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ECOLIND.2015.08.031
Kalirajan, K., y Paudel, R. (2015). India’s trade deficit with China: Will free trade agreement (FTA) work for India? Global Economy Journal, 15(4), 485-505. Recuperado de: https://doi.org/10.1515/gej-2015-0011
Kasman, A., y Duman, Y. S. (2015). CO2 emissions, economic growth, energy consumption, trade and urbanization in new EU member and candidate countries: A panel data analysis. Economic Modelling, 44, 97-103. Recuperado de: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2014.10.022
KIEP (2021). 20 Years of FTAS in Korea with KIEP. Seúl: KIEP.
Kim, M. J., y Lee, J. S. (2020). Implications of the Korea-Israel FTA: Focused on comparison to Korea-Chile FTA. The Journal of Korea Research Society for Customs, 21(3), 119-138.
Kim, C. S., Lee, S. H., Lee, J. H., Kim, M. J., Kim, S. W., y Kim, H. R. (2020). Trade and Investment Implications of Korea-Central America Free Trade Agreement (Studies in Global and Regional Strategies 20-04). Seúl: KIEP.
KITA (2019). Kita Trade Report: Korea-SICA FTA. 2. Seúl: KITA.
Kohler, M. (2013). Emisiones de CO2, consumo de energía, ingresos y comercio exterior: una perspectiva sudafricana. Política Energética, 63, 1042-1050.
Kojima, K. (1964). The pattern of international trade among advanced countries. Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, 5(1), 16-36. Recuperado de: https://doi.org/10.15057/8091
KREI (2016). Korea-Colombia FTA: Implications for Agricultural Sector. Seúl: KREI.
Krugman, P. (1995). Increasing returns, imperfect competition, and the positive theory of international trade. En G. Grossman y K. Rogoff (eds.), Handbook of International Economics (pp. 1244-1276). Ámsterdam: Elsevier.
Lalanne, A., y Sánchez, G. (2019). Evaluación del impacto de acuerdos comerciales: metodologías experiencias internacionales y aplicaciones para el caso uruguayo. Santiago de Chile: CEPAL.
Leonard, H. J. (2006). Pollution and the Struggle for the World Product: Multinational Corporations, Environment, and International Comparative Advantage. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Ling, C. H., Ahmed, K., Muhammad, R. B., y Shahbaz, M. (2015). Descomposición del nexo entre comercio y medio ambiente para Malasia: ¿Qué indican el efecto de la técnica, la escala, la composición y la ventaja comparativa? Reinar. Ciencia Contaminar Res., 22, 20131-20142.
Lipsey, R. G. (1960). The theory of customs unions: A general survey. The Economic Journal, 70(279), 496-513. Recuperado de: https://doi.org/10.2307/2228805
Liu, T. (2007). The impact of regional trade agreements on trade. The Chinese Economy, 40(2), 70-96. Recuperado de: https://doi.org/10.2753/CES1097-1475400204
Logsdon, J. M., y Husted, B. W. (2000). Mexico’s environmental performance under NAFTA: The first 5 years. Journal of Environment & Development, 9(4), 370-383. Recuperado de: https://doi.org/10.1177/107049650000900403
Lucas, R. E., Wheeler, D., y Hettige, H. (1992). Economic Development, Environmental Regulation, and the International Migration of Toxic Industrial Pollution, 1960-88 (Policy Research Working Papers, 1062). Washington, D. C.: Banco Mundial.
Managi, S., y Hibiki, A., y Tsurumi, T. (2008). Does Trade Liberalization Reduce Pollution Emissions (Discussion Papers 08-E-013). Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry. Recuperado de: https:// econpapers.repec.org/paper/etidpaper/08013.htm
Meade, J. E. (1955). The Theory of Customs Unions. Ámsterdam: North Holland.
Michaely, M. (1996). Trade-Preferential Agreements in Latin America: An Ex Ante Assessment (Policy Research Working Paper, 1583). Washington, D. C.: Banco Mundial.
Ministerio de Relaciones Exteriores de Chile (2022). Chile-Corea del Sur. Acuerdo de Libre Comercio. Recuperado de: https://www.subrei.gob.cl/acuerdos-comerciales/acuerdos-comerciales-vigentes/corea-del-sur
MOTIE (2021). Recuperado de: www.motie.go.kr
Mundell, R. A. (1961). A theory of optimum currency areas. American Economic Review, 51(4), 657-665.
Ngepah, N., y Udeagha, M. C. (2018). African regional trade agreements and intra-African trade. Journal of Economic Integration, 33(1), 1176-1199. Recuperado de: https://doi.org/10.11130/jei.2018.33.1.1176
Ngepah, N., y Udeagha, M. C. (2019). Supplementary trade benefits of multi-memberships in African regional trade agreements. Journal of African Business, 20(4), 505-524. Recuperado de: https://doi.org/10.1080/15228916.2019.1584719
Okabe, M. (2015). Impact of Free Trade Agreements on Trade in East Asia (ERIA Discussion Paper Series, eria-dp-2015-01). ERIA.
OMC (2021). Examen estadístico del comercio mundial de 2021. Ginebra: OMC. Recuperado de: https://www.wto.org/spanish/res_s/statis_s/wts2021_s/wts2021_s.pdf
Panagariya, A. (2000). Preferential trade liberalization: The traditional theory and new developments. Journal of Economic Literature, 38(2), 287-331. Recuperado de: https://www.doi.org/10.1257/jel.38.2.287
Péridy, N. (2005). Toward a Pan-Arab free trade area: Assessing trade potential effects of the Agadir Agreement. The Developing Economies, 43(3), 329-345. Recuperado de: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1746-1049.2005. tb00948.x
Pilar, S. del, y Peña, N. de la (2019). Estimation of the commercial effect of a Colombia-Israel FTA: Trade overview and partial equilibrium analysis, 2004-2014. Cuadernos de Administración, 32(59). Recuperado de: https://doi.org/10.11144/Javeriana.cao32-59.etcec
Plummer, M. B., Cheong, D., y Hamanaka, S. (2010). Methodology for Impact Assessment of Free Trade Agreements. Manila: Asian Development Bank.
Quintana-Romero, L., Mun, N. K., Andrés-Rosales, R., y Álvarez-García, J. (2020). Trade complementarity and the balance of payments constraint hypothesis: A new free trade agreement between Mexico and South Korea. Mathematics, 8(10), 1708. Recuperado de: https://doi.org/10.3390/math8101708
Reinert, K. A., y Roland-Holst, D. W. (2001). NAFTA and industrial pollution: Some general equilibrium results. Journal of Economic Integration, 16(2), 165-179. Recuperado de: https://doi.org/10.11130/jei.2001.16.2.165
Rock, M. T. (1996). Pollution intensity of GDP and trade policy: Can the World Bank be wrong? World Development, 24(3), 471-479. Recuperado de: https://doi.org/10.1016/0305-750X(95)00152-3
Sbia, R., Shahbaz, M., y Hamdi, H. (2014). A contribution of foreign direct investment, clean energy, trade openness, carbon emissions and economic growth to energy demand in UAE. Economic Modelling, 36, 191-197. Recuperado de: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2013.09.047
Secretaría de Economía (2020). Programa Sectorial de Economía 2019-2024 (Diario Oficial de la Federación, 24 de junio 2020). Recuperado de: https://dof.gob.mx/nota_detalle.php?codigo=5595481&fecha=24/06/2020#gsc.tab=0
Shnyrkov, O. I., y Pliushch, D. S. (2019). Quantitative Analysis of Trade Complementarity between Ukraine and the EU. Actual Problems of International Relations, 1(141). Recuperado de: https://doi.org/10.17721/apmv.2019.141.1.89-97
Sofjan, M. (2016). Assessing the Economic Impact of Free Trade Agreement on Indonesia (tesis doctoral). Université de Bordeaux, Francia.
Soloaga, I., y Winters, A. (1999). Regionalism in the nineties: What effects on trade? The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 12(1), 1-29. Recuperado de: https://doi.org/10.1016/S1062-9408(01)00042-0
Stern, N. (2008). The economics of climate change. The American Economic Review, 98(2), 1-37. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.98.2.1
Stoneman, C., y Thompson, C. (2007). Trading partners or trading deals? The EU and US in Southern Africa. Review of African Political Economy, 34(112), 227-245. Recuperado de: https://doi.org/10.1080/03056240701449620
Takele, T. B. (2019). The relevance of coordinated regional trade logistics for the implementation of regional free trade area of Africa. Journal of Transport and Supply Chain Management, 13(1), 1-11. Recuperado de: http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/5179964
Trade Statistics Service (2022). Recuperado de: https://unipass.customs.go.kr/
Vanek, J. (1965). General Equilibrium of International Discrimination. The Case of Customs Unions. Harvard University Studies, volume 123. Cambridge, Mass., Cambridge University Press, 1965, IX p. 234 p., 15.50. Louvain Economic Review, 32(8), 673-674. Recuperado de: https://www.doi.org/10.1017/S0770451800039099
Vicard, V. (2009). On trade creation and regional trade agreements: Does depth matter? Review of World Economics, 145(2), 145-167. Recuperado de: https://www.doi.org/10.1007/s10290-009-0010-9
Viner, J. (1950). The Custom Union Issue. Londres: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Yao, X., Yasmeen, R., Li, Y., Hafeez, M., y Padda, I. U. H. (2019). Free trade agreements and environment for sustainable development: A gravity model analysis. Sustainability, 11(3), 597. Recuperado de: https://doi.org/10.3390/su11030597
Yasmeen, R., Li, Y., Hafeez, M., y Ahmad, H. (2018). The trade-environment nexus in light of governance: A global potential. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 25, 34360-34379. Recuperado de: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-018-3390-3
Yeats, A. J. (1997). Does Mercosur’s Trade Performance Raise Concerns about the Effects of Regional Trade Arrangements? (Policy Research Working Paper, 1729). Washington, D. C.: Banco Mundial.
Yeats, A. J. (1998). What Can Be Expected from African Regional Trade Arrangements? (Policy Research Working Paper, 2004). Washington, D. C.: Banco Mundial.
Yeo, A. D., y Deng, A. (2019). The trade policy effect in international trade: Case of Pakistan. Journal of Economic Structures, 8(1), 1-17. Recuperado de: https://doi.org/10.1186/s40008-019-0169-8
Yu, T. H., Kim, M. K., y Cho, S. H. (2011). Does trade liberalization induce more greenhouse gas emissions? The case of Mexico and the United States under NAFTA. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 93(2), 545-552. Recuperado de: https://doi.org/10.1093/ajae/aaq145
Zerbo, E. (2017). Income-environment relationship in Sub-Saharan African countries: Further evidence with trade openness. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 24, 16488-16502. Recuperado de: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-017-9303-z
Zhang, Y., Zhang, G., y Fung, H. (2007). The prospects for China’s free trade agreements. The Chinese Economy, 40(2), 5-35.