Estrategias de endeudamiento bajo estrés financiero: un análisis multivariado de los patrones divergentes de utilización de la red mundial de seguridad financiera
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El financiamiento en situaciones de crisis es provisto por instituciones y acuerdos dentro de la red conocida como la Red Mundial de Seguridad Financiera (RMSF). Desde la crisis financiera mundial, la RMSF se ha diversificado y vuelto compleja. ¿Como afecta esta complejidad a la estrategia de endeudamiento de los países bajo estrés financiero? Mediante técnicas de agrupación jerárquica no paramétrica identificamos una taxonomía económica de la RMSF que permite estudiar como los países prestatarios sustituyen y complementan el financiamiento de crisis provisto por el Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI), los fondos regionales de liquidez y los acuerdos swaps para el intercambio de divisas entre bancos centrales. Hasta donde sabemos, éste es el primer análisis empírico sobre patrones de endeudamiento en la RMSF. En lugar de probar hipótesis sobre relaciones causales, clasificamos las estrategias de endeudamiento entre 2001 y 2008 con base en 201 préstamos y acuerdos swap de 50 economías emergentes y en desarrollo. Nuestros resultados presentan un uso dominante y exclusivo de los swaps. Los países excluidos de estos swaps diversifican sus estrategias de endeudamiento, al recurrir al FMI y a otras opciones, aunque sus alternativas pueden ser insuficientes. Nuestros hallazgos también demuestran que los swaps han generado una gran desigualdad en el acceso al financiamiento de crisis en la RMSF. Por lo tanto, los actores formuladores de políticas deberían incluir a los bancos centrales en cualquier esfuerzo por mejorar la efectividad del financiamiento en situaciones de crisis.
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