Convergencia, divergencia y estratificación. Estudio comparativo de la dinámica de crecimiento de la manufactura en los municipios mexicanos y los condados estadunidenses

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Rodolfo Cermeño
David Mayer Foulkes
Ariadna Martínez González

Resumen

En este artículo se analiza la dinámica del valor agregado manufacturero per capita como proxy del ingreso per capita de los municipios de México y condados de Estados Unidos. Específicamente, se busca determinar si existe convergencia (absoluta o condicional), divergencia o estratificación. Se utiliza un modelo de panel dinámico sin regresores exógenos y se considera el problema del sesgo en este contexto específico. En general se concluye que la dinámica del valor agregado per capita de los condados de Estados Unidos muestra convergencia condicional y poca dispersión de sus estados estacionarios. En cambio, en el caso de México se encuentra una dinámica congruente con crecimiento estratificado. El estudio también encuentra que el crecimiento de la manufactura en los condados de EEUU y los municipios de México diverge en el tiempo.
Palabras clave:
crecimiento económico, convergencia, divergencia, manufactura, municipios mexicanos, condados estadunidenses, estratificación

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